Influenza, COVID-19 and other upper respiratory tract diseases are currently affecting the population more intensively than at the same time last year. Daiva Razmuvienė, a doctor at the National Public Health Center, explained in more detail.
- Why has the incidence increased so much and will there be a need for mass containment measures?
- Every year during this period, we create very favorable conditions for the spread of viruses, because we spend most of the day indoors. The weekly morbidity rates that are being calculated now do not really tell us how fast that process will continue. In the same week of last year, the cumulative incidence rates were lower, this year they are increasing. But going back to last season at the same time, the numbers started to rise in the run up to Christmas. This is not typical for Lithuania, compared to pre-pandemic flu periods. As students returned from fall break last week, the incidence of all three groups of infections increased. That indicator reached almost 700 thousand from 1,1 cases. cases. However, there is still not a single municipality where the epidemic threshold has been reached, when 1,5 thousand people should be sick. persons per 100 thousand population. The lowest morbidity is recorded in Telšiai, and the highest in Vilnius county. The coming week may show a not necessarily bullish forecast. However, if we remember the flu seasons before the pandemic, if the increase in morbidity had already started, it sometimes reached epidemics.
- If the incidence of these diseases is so early and intense, maybe the season of these diseases will end earlier than last year?
- It is possible that it will end earlier. The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control says the same. There are currently more cases of the coronavirus than the flu. Last week, almost a hundred cases of flu were recorded, and as many as 4 thousand cases of coronavirus. cases. There may be two waves. It has happened that the flu starts as if the illness subsides, and then it picks up again and we get a second wave.
- The symptoms of the COVID-19 disease have become very similar to other cold diseases. Often, residents may write it off as a common cold. Don't you see the risk that this coronavirus infection could spread again?
- Currently, it is the most widespread of all three groups. The cold group includes real and undiagnosed cases of flu and coronavirus. Since we have the new omikron XBB.1.5 subvariant, we haven't come across it. Of course, there are about 35 thousand. of vaccinated persons from October 5. It also provides a certain protective barrier. In Europe, increased morbidity is not registered, it is simply noted that risk groups are at greatest risk. These persons usually present with severe forms of COVID-19, and they also have to be admitted to hospitals. We don't know how this new variant will behave, so the situation is constantly being monitored.
- If the incidence increases even more, would there be any restrictions not only on visiting patients in hospitals, but also on the return of masks?
- At present, personal health care institutions themselves decide based on the flow of morbidity visits they have. As long as there is no declared epidemic either in their municipality or in the country, they can tighten infection control measures. They are already applied in some institutions. Flows are controlled, patient attendance is limited, masks are used. But if an epidemic were declared, those infection control measures would be greatly tightened. We don't have this situation yet, we're just observing.
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