Preparations for the Neris icebreaker are already starting: is Vilnius at risk of floods?

This year's winter was characterized not only by cold days, but also by a large amount of fallen snow. Since Saturday, the thermometers of the residents of the capital have been showing positive temperatures, which means that if not today, then soon the snow will start to melt. Will 1931 be repeated in Vilnius? flood when it was flooded Kathedros aikštė? We ask the experts.

A spring flood requires conditions that raise the water level. Although it snowed a lot this winter, and the rivers are bound by ice, the amounts are not very large.

In Vilnius, the flood is predicted to be small and there should be no danger. Although we will not avoid a flooded embankment, LHMT service specialists assure that it is nothing terrible, because it is elevated in Vilnius, so there is no danger to the surrounding streets. Only in places where the banks are shallower, the river can overflow.

"Currently, the river is covered with ice, so there is a very high probability that ice jams will form, which will cause the water level to rise, and the icebreaker can detach the embankment elements," says Janina Brastovickytė-Stankevič, senior specialist of the Prognoses and Warnings Department of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service. .

Since positive air temperatures are currently forecast, it is difficult to estimate how fast the snow will melt and how fast the ice will move and where ice will form.

"Unfortunately, ice cream jams are difficult to predict, basically unpredictable. So if the snow melts slowly, in that case, the water level of the rivers will not rise much. Then a bigger flood can be determined by the formed ice jams, which prevent water from flowing down the river for a while, then the rapid rise of the water level begins," explains the specialist.

As winter comes to an end, we will finally get plus temperatures. In some places, the air temperature will rise up to 7 degrees Celsius.

"In the coming days, the weather will change dramatically - the cold will leave, from the west, south-west plus a wave of warmer weather. There will be precipitation in many areas, but it will be weak, snow will be replaced by light rain, fog. Also, changes in the weather will be accompanied by dangerous phenomena: sleet, sleet, fog. From Sunday, the nights will be only a few degrees of cold or the temperature will fluctuate around 0 degrees, and the days will be a few degrees of heat," says Tadas Kantautas, LHMT forecaster.

There is really no need to be afraid. Floods are extremely rare in Lithuania. On average 2-3 times in 100 years.

The biggest flood in Vilnius in April 1931, when the Cathedral Square was flooded, covered the districts of Antakalnis and Žvėrynas, the water level at that time was 8,25 m above post zero. To this day, this water level remains the highest. Also, one of the biggest floods was in 1958. Then the Cathedral Square in Vilnius was flooded, and in 1951 there and near the Academy of Sciences there was enough water that it was possible to sail in boats.

The last very large flood was recorded in 1979. - Vilnius almost got flooded. However, since 1976, 15 percent the water is held back by the Vileika dam and somewhat protects Vilnius.

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