Political scientists agree that conservatives, liberals and "liberal" candidates should be more worried after MP Mykolas Majauskas, who was expelled from the ranks of the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) party, announced his candidacy in the Vilnius mayoral elections. According to them, M. Majauskas will claim the votes of the voters of these parties, so everything will depend on how these political forces will be able to mobilize them.
The conservatives have nominated Valdas Benkunskas, the Freedom Party - Tomas Vytautas Raskevičius, the Liberal Movement - Eglė Radvilė as a candidate in the Vilnius mayoral elections.
M. Jurkynas: so far, M. Majauskas' chances are lower than those of conservative and liberal candidates
Vytautas Magnus University Jean Monnet professor Mindaugas Jurkynas believes that M. Majauskas' main target in the Vilnius mayoral elections will be the electorate of liberals and conservatives.
"M. Majauskas is associated with decisions that are linked to the conservative party, and in the adoption of the budget he supported the idea of the Freedom Party to extend VAT relief for catering establishments. The target of the electorate of the economically liberal and perhaps culturally liberal politician expelled from the Conservative Party will be the voters of the Conservative Party and the Freedom Party first and foremost," said M. Jurkynas to Eltai.
Therefore, the political scientist emphasizes that the participation of M. Majauskas in the Vilnius mayoral elections creates a certain competition for the candidates of both conservative parties and both liberal parties.
"It creates a certain competition, but it all depends on how disciplined the Conservative and Freedom voters are, how much they will support the candidate nominated by their party, rather than an independent candidate who does not have much administrative experience," he said.
M. Jurkynas claims that it is difficult to predict how realistic M. Majauskas' prospects are for entering the second round of mayoral elections. However, the political scientist believes that, for now, the politician's chances are lower than those of V. Benkunskas or TV Raskevičius.
"He has not appeared in the polls so far, so it is difficult to say what kind of support anyone would express for him. I imagine that if the support of some politicians was expressed to him, let's say some politician decided not to run and expressed his opinion as supporting M. Majauskas, then his chances of getting to the second round could be higher. Now, I would say that his chances are still lower than those of V. Benkuns, TV Raskevičius, if the voters of those parties will support the candidates nominated by those parties instead of an independent candidate," he said.
The political scientist considers that, in general, it is more difficult for an independent candidate to successfully participate in the mayoral elections than for a party delegate.
"We need both finances for the election campaign and people who will get involved in this activity. There are many economic issues in local self-government: parking of cars, street permeability, traffic jams, garbage removal. (…) This is probably more about some kind of administrative resource, whether a person has it, whether he has experience and people behind him," he reflected.
T. Janeliūnas: The involvement of M. Majauskas in the elections will change the situation
In turn Vilnius University According to Tomas Janeliūnas, professor of the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI), the involvement of M. Majauskas in the elections will undoubtedly change the situation.
"The involvement of a well-known politician in the elections will change the situation. All the more so since in Vilnius we have not had very bright and very strong candidates for mayor until now. Only A. Zuokas has been the most prominent and well-known candidate for many years, also a former mayor, but the representatives of other parties are not the ones who are huge stars. Nope V. Benkunskas, nor the representatives of the two liberal parties are those who are at the very top of the politicians' ratings or are well known to the voters," T. Janeliūnas told Elta.
"This is M. Majauskas, I think that, of course, he will get involved in that competitive fight quite significantly. And for both V. Benkunskas and the representatives of the liberal parties, there will certainly be a serious competitor, I have no doubt about that," he added.
However, in the opinion of the political scientist, the decision of M. Majauskas does not change the situation of the former mayor of Vilnius A. Zuokas in the elections.
"I would think that this does not change A. Zuok's opportunities, it changes more those other candidates who are currently trying to compete with each other, among those voters with conservative, liberal views. And accordingly, the main battle will most likely take place in that second round," said T. Janeliūnas, emphasizing that it is too early to predict who will make it to the second round of Vilnius mayoral elections.
On Tuesday, M. Majauskas announced that he was resigning from the position of chairman of the Seimas Budget and Finance Committee (BFK). This was announced by the parliamentarian after the no-confidence procedure against him as BFK chairman failed, after the ruling party boycotted the secret ballot.
Gailė Jaruševičiūtė-Mockuvienė (ELTA)
