Even professional meteorologists, when they saw future forecasts for the ongoing heat wave in Canada, thought there was some kind of mistake. However, temperatures above 46 degrees in this country only confirm once again that the weather, even with the latest automated technology, is not always so easily predicted. According to the Director of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service, Kęstutis Šetkaus, unexpected events will only increase in the future, and temperatures above forty degrees will not take long to come to Lithuania as well, if the fight against climate change is not taken up.
"The biggest problem with all unexpected events - such as heat, floods, fires, hurricanes and the like - is that they usually bring huge losses. Both material damage to our property and much greater and more difficult to calculate damage to nature or people. Happy are those who experience only inconvenience due to these elements. Unfortunately, most of the countries of the world will not avoid more painful consequences in the future because of this", says K. Šetkus.
The weather monitoring network in Europe is being restored
According to him, it is difficult to accurately predict extreme natural phenomena, because they tend to form in a small, local area, and the current weather monitoring network is not sufficient for this. "If the various weather measurements were carried out every kilometer or so, we might catch these local phenomena as well, but this is not the case. On the contrary, the weather monitoring points in Europe were decreasing strongly some time ago, it is good that now that trend is changing and they are being restored again", says K. Šetkus.
Modern weather forecasting is automated: it uses automatic monitoring of actual weather conditions (temperature, wind, snow sky, etc.) and powerful global network equipment to help build future weather scenarios. Analyzing these data and phenomena, a person forms final forecasts and can provide insights into possible extreme events.
Natural phenomena will only increase
"We sometimes get letters from people complaining that our forecast ruined their vacation because they were prepared for a storm and where they were and protected, the storm didn't come. However, it must be understood that such a warning may have helped someone to avoid an accident," says the head of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service.
Specialists notice that especially younger people tend to think that if something has not happened for five years, it means that it will not happen at all. Then they choose to build their houses somewhere near the river, because they are convinced that there are no floods there. However, often even archeological research does not find the remains of residential buildings that stood there before, because one flood in fifty years is enough to cause huge losses.
K. Šetkus says that suggestions also arise from this, for example, to change the building regulation, simplifying roof structures or similar. However, he is convinced that natural phenomena will only increase in the next decade, so it is important to prepare for them.
According to him, as the climate warms and no action is taken, the highest temperature in Lithuania can undoubtedly also reach the one currently recorded in Canada. "The rate of warming of the weather recorded every year in Lithuania is extremely pronounced. If we do nothing together with other countries, unfortunately, the most pessimistic scenarios will come true. However, especially in the European region, I see many initiatives to reduce that pace, and I believe that we will succeed", predicts K. Šetkus.
Futuristic scenarios are getting closer to reality
Climate futurists believe that by 2050 In Lithuania, the average annual air temperature could increase by one more degree. "While those averages and seemingly modest warming don't sound alarming, they are making significant changes to native flora and fauna. In addition, some states are threatened by the opposite phenomenon - cooling. For example, this year we saw exceptional winter weather conditions in Spain, which is not ready for it at all," says K. Šetkus.
The futuristic scenario of climate change can be seen in reality in one of the objects of the "17" project, which is taking place in the summer. The project, which aims to present the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, wants to draw people's attention to the need for urgent action to combat climate change. Everyone who visits the installation can see themselves in the center of natural elements.
The head of the Lithuanian hydrometeorological service says that such examples should help people to better understand the scale of this problem and its possible consequences. According to him, it is natural that the younger generation understands these things much more clearly, because they grow up without questioning climate change. "We had to get to know and recognize these phenomena. Now we have to try to act in such a way that children and grandchildren have as few reasons as possible to blame us for pollution and the impact on the climate", observes K. Šetkus.
The initiators of the project share a photo showing the flooded Vokiečių Street in Vilnius. According to experts, to prevent this from happening, it is necessary to take steps to prevent extreme climate events and help prepare for their consequences.
Cognitive sustainability project "17" initiated by "Swedbank"Lithuania supports it Vilnius city municipality, will be held until September 17. Residents of the country, citizens of Vilnius and guests of the city are invited to take part in an interactive journey and get to know 17 sustainability areas and objects that reflect the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. You can learn more about the project at www.septyniolika.com, as well as download the app "Septyniolika" from the Google play or App store platforms.
